Reform, Rage and the Ruin of Local Politics; Local Election Preview

Breaking My Resolution

My New Year’s resolution was to quit pro-Trump and pro-Farage forums and Facebook groups. But in the run-up to this week’s local elections, I broke that self-imposed ban to assess the prospects of Reform UK.

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National Trends, Local Anomalies

Nationally, Labour aren’t defending many seats, so despite Starmer’s lacklustre popularity, they’re unlikely to suffer major losses. If things don’t improve in the next year, the real damage could come in 2026. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are defending seats last contested at the peak of Boris Johnson’s popularity. A hiding looks likely.

But Durham is different. All seats are up for grabs. Reform is making a big push, with former GB News presenter Darren Grimes eyeing the council leadership and Nigel Farage popping up for photo ops. They’re deploying a familiar Trumpian playbook: dominate the conversation, spend big on targeted social media, and muddy the waters with disinformation.

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Labour’s Long Decline

Labour held Durham County Council for a century until 2011. During the Corbyn era, many experienced councillors were deselected and replaced with middle-class candidates who struggled to connect with older, socially conservative voters. Since then, the council has been run by a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition that has achieved little.

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Reform’s Social Media Blitz

Reform are all over social media. “Have Your Say” Facebook groups in places like Seaham and Sunderland are flooded with their messaging. Around 70% of posts in some groups are pro-Reform. There’s plenty of bad spelling, but also slick videos that dominate engagement metrics.

Much of it comes from anonymous or suspicious accounts. One prolific poster had clearly been banned multiple times; another was, according to local sources, deceased. One account’s profile picture featured blackface. Despite officially raising only £250,000 to contest these elections, Reform is spending many times that. Their treasurer, Nick Candy, has reportedly been courting foreign billionaires and tax exiles for donations.

Social media is the centre of Reform’s election strategy. They claim a rapidly growing membership, but lack people to campaign for them. Instead Farage makes inflammatory statements that stop short of outright racism or demands for ethnic cleansing. These statements are then circulated on social media where his supporters say the things out loud that he only hints at.

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What Reform Voters Really Look Like

Given the unravelling of Brexit, it’s strange Reform still has momentum. But that tells us Brexit was never really about the EU. To understand Reform voters, it helps to know who they are.

Matt Goodwin and the Legatum Institute (which funds GB News and has alleged Russian links) paint Reform as a party for disillusioned working-class voters. But data from YouGov and Ipsos tells a different story: Reform supporters are mostly older, retired, and financially comfortable. They’re ex-Tory voters.

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The New Trussonomics

Dame Andrea Jenkyns—one of the less impressive alumni of the Liz Truss administration—may soon be Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire. Yes, that’s a role with the political gravitas of a pantomime villain, but it shows Reform has become the natural home for Trussonomics on steroids.

These voters didn’t leave school with many qualifications, but many did well for themselves. They’re not the downtrodden masses; they’re often a rung or two above the poorest. But two things unite them:

1. They live in very white areas and want to keep it that way.
2. They are older, mostly retired, and not digital natives.

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Fear, Fantasy and Facebook

Research shows people in diverse areas are more comfortable with immigration. The fear of immigrants is often strongest where there are few. Social media feeds them a diet of scare stories—usually about crime in multicultural areas. Anti-Muslim content is especially common, with Sadiq Khan repeatedly portrayed as presiding over a violent, lawless London.

The central narrative is that Britain is broken, and immigration is to blame. They distinguish between “essential” and “non-essential” immigration, which often boils down to white vs non-white. Asylum seekers are framed as an invading army, a trope laced with colonial-era racism. Grooming gang stories have traction because they tap into ancient fears about non-white men coveting white women.

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The Invasion That Never Comes

These voters fear that their white neighbourhoods will soon be “invaded.” It’s not new. I remember canvassing in Quarrington during the 1992 election. A man insisted Labour would flood the town with immigrants. The councillor pointed out that no one in the souks of Kandahar or on the beaches of Jamaica was waiting for UK election results to move to Quarrington. It didn’t matter to the voter on the doorstep. He’d read it in the papers. The Councillor, exasperated, told the voter that he was an immigrant, as he had moved to Quarrington some years ago from Coxhoe, the neighbouring village.

These invasion myths have been around for decades. They never materialise, but that doesn’t stop people believing them. The small boats narrative gives these men a Spitfire pilot fantasy to cling to. They want to feel like they’re defending the nation.

Ironically, they want a whiter Britain but bristle at any suggestion of racism. Not being allowed to say racist things is seen as an attack on free speech. Some who raged about asylum seekers in hotels now rage when they’re moved out of hotels. Reform and local independents are adamant: no asylum seekers in County Durham.

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Inequality Isn’t the Cure

Threats of violence were disturbingly common. Many believe saying “no offence, eh mate” makes racism acceptable.

There’s a theory that far-right populism stems from inequality and that a more redistributive Labour Party could neutralise Reform. George Monbiot recently argued this in The Guardian.

But this falls apart under scrutiny. Reform voters loathe the idea of a more equal society. They don’t want fairness; they want hierarchy. They want to preserve their place in the social order. Monbiot confuses correlation with causation. Yes, neoliberalism destabilised society, but some families—often immigrant or minority—prospered. That provoked resentment from those who saw themselves as naturally superior.

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Reform’s Real Appeal

Reform, like UKIP and the Brexit Party before it, gives the angry an outlet. Angry at decline, angry at being ignored, angry at Labour and the Tories alike. Reform’s message: both parties are two cheeks of the same failing backside.

The Tories will get hammered—by Lib Dems in the south and Reform elsewhere. Labour still faces deep animosity, some of it rooted in old grievances, some amplified by Facebook echo chambers. Many older voters blame Labour for local decline, despite 14 years of Tory rule and five years of Tory-led council in Durham.

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A Farcical Future

A national strike is planned in May to try to oust Starmer. Quite how people who don’t work can strike is beyond me. But it might offer a clearer picture of Reform’s grassroots strength than the local elections.

Prediction? Reform will likely become the largest party in Durham in a messy coalition with independents. Darren Grimes will grab the leadership, then flounce off in a strop. The whiter the ward, the more likely it is to swing Reform.

It’ll be a disaster, of course. But voters don’t care anymore. They want to break things. Immigration is their main issue, even though councils have no power over immigration. They want to send a message—that they want a Liz Truss government, but with more chaos and racism. A British Trump.

The Lib Dems and Greens will win more seats in local government than Reform. But even a tiny Reform breakthrough will be overhyped as proof Farage is marching towards No.10. Which is nonsense, but exactly the kind of nonsense the media loves.

Buckle up.

Here then is your offical Reform 2025 local election manifesto:

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🎉 VOTE REFORM UK – Because Tonight we want to party like it’s 1959 🎉

Are you tired of modern Britain? Sick of respect, decency, and diversity? Yearning for a past that never really existed? Then Reform UK is the party for you!

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🔥 OUR VISION FOR A SIMPLER, WHITER, DRINKIER BRITAIN:

• ☀️ Hotter Summers, Just Like the Old Days
  Global warming? We call it “a proper British summer.” Bring on the sunburn and hosepipe bans!
• 📺 Proper Saturday Night TV
  Every week: It Ain’t Half Hot Mum, Love Thy Neighbour, and On the Buses. Everyone laughs. No complaints. No woke.
• 🏳️‍🌈 LGBTQIAwhatnow?
  Gay people can stay, but only if they’re camp, comic relief, and hosted by Bruce Forsyth. The rest? Back in the closet, love.
• 🍻 Drink Driving for the Experienced Gentleman
  If you’re a white bloke with a Mondeo and “know your limits” (you don’t), you’re good to go.
• 🍑 Barmaids Know It’s Just Banter
  Groping isn’t harassment — it’s how we say hello! Lighten up, sweetheart.
• 🗣️ Free Speech for Bigots
  Say what you like, as long as you follow it with “no offence, eh mate?”
• 🕵️ Selective Law Enforcement
  Paedophiles? The police will only investigate if you’re brown, foreign, or poor. C of E vicars get a pass.
• 🍽️ Wives in Kitchens, Not Boardrooms
  Real women cook gammon. Real men grunt. Balance restored.
• 👴 Respect Your Elders (Even the Racist Ones)
  Grandad’s WW2 tales are sacred, even the ones involving war crimes and borderline confessions. Even if the nearest he got to WW2 was watching re-runs of 633 Squadron
• 👮 Smack First, Ask Questions Later
  Police discipline for kids: one good slap and a warning about communism.
• 🎖️ Medals for Keyboard Warriors
  If you’ve posted “Sink the Boats” on Facebook 100 times, congratulations — you’re now a decorated war hero.
• 🕌 Mosques Out, But Keep the Kebabs
  We’ll deport Muslims, but allow a few to stay for essential services like doner meat at 2am.
• ⚖️ Bring Back Hanging
  Strictly for the “wrong sort.” Don’t worry — we’ll only use it on people you don’t like.
• 🎓 University is for the Right Sort
  Middle-class kids only. Working-class ambition is woke.
• ⚽ All-White Football Teams
  None of this “Marcus Rashford feeding kids” nonsense — back to the days when men were thugs and midfielders.
• 🏴 St George’s Day: National Binge Day
  12 pints, a bit of coke, a racist chant, and wet trousers. It’s what the patron saint would have wanted.
• 🌳 Bring Back the Birch
  Corporal punishment: because nothing says “effective parenting” like institutionalised violence.
• 🥓 Breakfast of Champions
  Fry-ups, Rothmans, and lager are the new five-a-day. Dissenters get a clip round the ear.
• 🎭 Chubby Brown: A National Treasure
  Every council theatre, every weekend. No exceptions. No refunds. No minorities.
• 🏘️ Back to Basics
  No Dogs. No Blacks. No Irish. Just like the good old days.

In the interests of balance here is the Green Party local election manifesto too:

🌱 The Green and Pleasant Land Party 🌱
Saving the Planet (but not if it ruins the view)

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Our Vision for Britain:

• No ghastly wind turbines cluttering up the skyline near anyone who reads The Guardian or has a second home in Cornwall. Put them somewhere invisible, like Sunderland.
• No monstrous solar farms ruining the aesthetic harmony of our wildflower meadows (especially the ones we picnic on during Waitrose hamper season).
• Absolutely NO affordable housing near us, thank you very much. We support sustainability – just not the kind that involves chavs, single mums, or people with tattoos living in a postcode near ours.

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For the Landed and the Learned:

• Bring back inheritance tax breaks for farmers — because nothing says “climate justice” like making sure Tarquin can inherit 400 acres of barley and a labrador without paying a penny.
• Axe VAT on private schools — little Hugo shouldn’t be punished for getting a better class of Latin. He deserves a carbon-neutral rowing lake, not working-class classmates.

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Our Pledges:

🌍 Climate action (unless it spoils the wine tasting view)
🏡 Affordable housing (somewhere far away)
🎓 Education for all (of the right sort)
🚫 No to turbines, solar panels, or poor people within a five-mile radius of our eco-villages

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Vote Green: For the Environment. For the Economy. For the Exclusivity.

As a PS to his post Reform have an unusual structure for a political party, they, and the Brexit Party before them are businesses.

This is odd for a political party, and there was a lot of criticism that Nigel Farage effectively owned the party. He agreed under pressure to some changes to the party structure back in February:

However when you look into Reforms new party structure it is controlled by a new company called Reform 2025 Ltd

And lets guess who controls Reform 2025?

Muhammed Yusuf was the former owner of Velocity Black, a luxury concierge company.