The Government is in chaos. Keir Starmer hangs by a thread. A General Election is imminent as the administration approaches collapse.
If you spend too long online, or read certain newspapers, that is the story. From bot accounts to Daily Mail columnists hyperventilating into their keyboards, the narrative is constant: crisis, scandal, imminent implosion.
And yet, none of it is really true.
The Mandelson affair is serious. But it is no worse than dozens of scandals that have hit governments over the years. British politics now operates in a state of permanent hysteria. Starmer risks losing his job despite never appearing in the Epstein files, while Trump — who was photographed repeatedly with Epstein — sails on. The asymmetry is absurd.
There is no serious prospect of an early General Election. Governments with large majorities do not simply fall because Twitter wants them to. Starmer may well go before the next election — prime ministers often do — but that is a very different thing from governmental collapse.
Behind the noise, the Government is quietly pushing through a substantial legislative programme. That alone makes an early election highly unlikely. Administrations do not abandon major reform programmes halfway through unless forced by arithmetic. Labour is not.
But something is clearly not working.
The Real Problem: Capacity
The Government is stretched. It is trying to manage day-to-day administration, deal with geopolitical shocks — including a second Trump presidency — and implement a large legislative agenda after 14 years in opposition.
That would test even a well-drilled administration. Labour inherited something else entirely.
From 2010 onwards, most departments shrank dramatically. Civil service numbers fell across Whitehall — with the exception of departments like DWP, which expanded to deliver Universal Credit. It now costs roughly £10bn a year to run DWP as a department, with Universal Credit administration alone costing in the region of £15bn. Andrew Lansley’s NHS reorganisation cost around £4bn and layered on further bureaucracy.
The numbers tell one story. The people tell another.
Many of the strongest civil servants left during the austerity years. Sir Leigh Lewis — the last DWP permanent secretary to have worked at every grade in his department — left after his first meeting with Ian Duncan Smith. Across Whitehall, experienced institutionalists departed. In their place came officials who were often more compliant than capable. Ministers frequently preferred familiarity of background over depth of experience.
Brexit compounded the problem. Civil service numbers rose again — not because the system became more efficient, but because the bureaucracy of disentanglement demanded it. New departments were created and scrapped. The administrative load multiplied. Boris Johnson’s trade deal locked in friction that requires permanent management.
The result is a civil service that is larger than it was in 2010, but in many areas less coherent and less strategically led.
Anyone who has tried to deal with HMRC or DWP recently will have seen the dysfunction. When the Child Support Agency faltered in the early 2000s, cases were literally handled on paper because IT systems could not cope. Two decades on, similar structural weaknesses persist elsewhere.
Leadership — or the Lack of It
Wes Streeting is the only incoming Labour minister who appears to have fully grasped the scale of the problem. He has removed the top leadership of NHS England and the Department of Health and replaced them wholesale. Around 18,000 management roles are being cut as the internal market is dismantled.
That is disruptive, but it is at least decisive.
Elsewhere, continuity prevails.
The Permanent Secretary at DWP has announced his resignation following a damning review into the handling of Carer’s Allowance. His position had become untenable after a bruising select committee appearance that raised serious questions about departmental leadership.
The Cabinet Secretary is also departing barely a year into the job — hardly a sign of institutional stability.
And yet the majority of permanent secretaries remain in post from before the change of government. Two-thirds were at the same grade when Labour took office. Both permanent secretaries at HMRC remain in place despite repeated operational failures.
Labour has reshuffled ministers. It has not systematically reshaped Whitehall.
The Missed Opportunity
Starmer’s weakness is political rather than ideological. He came to politics late and does not command a natural faction within the Labour Party. He relied heavily on the small circle that delivered him Downing Street, rather than building a governing cadre. That leaves him dependent on institutions that are, at best, brittle.
The Government had a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reset civil service leadership after 14 years in opposition. Instead, it has largely chosen continuity with a failed leadership cadre put in place by weak and snobbish Ministers pre-2024.
That may prove to be the real risk.
The noise about imminent collapse is theatre. The legislative programme will grind on. Farage is not marching into Downing Street tomorrow.
But unless the Government confronts the structural weakness in Whitehall — leadership quality, systems, accountability — the quiet dysfunction will continue long after the headlines move on.
And that is a far more serious problem than any online panic about imminent collapse.
Postscript, current legislative programme
Major Acts Passed into Law
- Employment Rights Act 2025 – A significant overhaul of workers’ rights. Originally introduced as the Employment Rights Bill, it received Royal Assent in December 2025 and introduces wide-ranging reforms that will be phased in over 2026–27, updating protections for employees across many areas of workplace law.
- Planning and Infrastructure Act – This major piece of legislation aimed at speeding up the delivery of housing and critical infrastructure became law. It includes measures intended to cut delays and costs in planning decisions and support delivery of new homes, energy connections and other infrastructure priorities.
- Great British Energy Act 2025 – Established Great British Energy, a publicly owned clean energy company tasked with accelerating domestic energy production and supporting net-zero objectives.
- Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Act 2024 – Renationalised passenger rail services in Great Britain by allowing train operating companies to return to public sector ownership rather than franchising.
- Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025 (“Martyn’s Law”) – Requires venues with large gatherings to adopt specified security measures to reduce vulnerability to terrorist attacks and plan responses accordingly.
Notable Government Bills and Legislative Proposals
In addition to laws already passed, a number of significant bills are progressing through Parliament:
- Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill – A central piece of the government’s approach to asylum and illegal migration policy, shaping a tougher legal framework for immigration control.
- Cyber Security and Resilience Bill – Proposed to bolster defences of key public services like healthcare, critical infrastructure and transport against cyber attacks.
- Children’s Wellbeing Bill – Aimed at broader reforms supporting child welfare and education policy.
- Mental Health Bill – A planned overhaul of mental health law and services, seeking to update the legislative framework for treatment, detention and patient rights.
- Renters’ Rights Bill – Intended to strengthen protections for tenants in the private rental sector.
- Water (Special Measures) Bill – Legislation targeting water industry accountability, following concerns about executive pay practices and environmental performance.
Other legislative priorities include Armed Forces Commissioner Bill, Better Buses Bill, Pension Schemes Bill, Pension Schemes Bill, Skills England Bill, Tobacco and Vapes Bill, and various measures relating to courts, protections and digital information.
Other Legislative Activity
Beyond specifically named bills, the government has announced legislative initiatives in areas such as:
- Worker protections and modern workplace rights, including new rights to parental leave, statutory sick pay reforms and protections from exploitative contracts.
- Visa and immigration rule changes following the government’s 2025 immigration white paper proposals, affecting settlement rights and qualifying periods.
- Animal welfare reforms described as the largest in a generation.
- Protests and policing powers, with ongoing debates about how protest law should be shaped.
Key Legislation
Likely to Be Introduced or Progressing
These are the main areas where bills are expected to be tabled, reintroduced, or return to Parliament:
1. Migration & Asylum Reform
Border Security, Asylum and Immigration (BSAI)
- A major overhaul of asylum law to tighten eligibility, streamline deterrence, and reinforce removals.
- Aimed at legislating new approaches to small boats, relocation agreements, and offshore processing frameworks.
- Expected further amendments and negotiated provisions as it progresses through the Commons and Lords.
Status: Introduced; progressing through Parliament.
2. Mental Health Act Reform
Mental Health Bill
- A long-anticipated update to the Mental Health Act 1983.
- Proposals include modernising detention criteria, strengthened patient rights, enhanced community treatment orders, and new duties on services.
Timing: Government has committed to bringing forward a bill; exact timetable subject to parliamentary business.
3. Renters & Housing Rights
Renters (Reform) Bill
- Renewed focus on tenant protections in the private rental sector.
- Likely elements include longer tenancies, limits on arbitrarily high deposits, and clearer grounds for eviction.
Status: Expected this session.
4. Cyber & Digital Security
Cyber Security & Resilience Bill
- A cross-sector security framework to extend and modernise protections for critical infrastructure (banks, energy, healthcare, transport).
- Expanded statutory duties for corporate cyber risk management.
Status: Announced in policy papers; draft bill anticipated.
5. Children, Families & Education
Children’s Wellbeing Bill
- A broad approach to child welfare, with measures on safeguarding, school behaviour management, family support services, and early intervention.
Status: In development; principles set out in speeches and White Papers.
6. Skills, Employment & Productivity
Skills and Productivity Bill
- Legislation to strengthen lifelong skills, employer-led vocational training, apprenticeships, and skills transfer.
- Possibly a reworking of previous “Skills for Jobs” policy into statute.
Status: Policy outlined, awaiting formal bill.
7. Health & Social Care Sector Reform
Social Care Bill (Reform or Renewal)
- A larger legislative package addressing workforce shortages, integration with NHS, funding models, and care standards.
- This has been discussed for years but remains “forthcoming.”
Status: Likely this session, though scope may vary.
8. Consumer Protection & Product Safety
Following EU exit, ongoing reform of safety and consumer law is expected, including:
- product labelling
- liability standards for connected devices
- AI-integrated systems
No single named bill yet, but incremental legislation is expected.
9. Policing, Public Order & Protest Laws
There is intent to revisit statute on protest rights, policing powers and public safety, potentially updating:
- Public Order Act
- Police powers of dispersal
- Data collection and surveillance law
Status: Policy signals from government; draft provisions in consultation stage.
10. Employment Law Next Steps
Following the Employment Rights Act 2025, further employment law reforms could include:
- enforcement mechanisms
- additional worker protections
- gig economy worker rights
- flexible working rights
These may appear through secondary legislation or new bills.
11. Environmental & Net Zero Follow-Up
The “Environmental Improvement Plan” and net zero commitments may drive:
- Clean air enforcement
- Nature recovery mandates
- Emissions trading adjustments
Not a single large bill, but a suite of environment-related legislative updates.
12. Animal Welfare
Post-Animal Welfare Reforms announcement, the government has signalled a future:
- Animal Welfare Bill expected to consolidate and update protections for farmed animals, pets, wildlife and land use.
Status: Promised in policy agenda.