Predictions for 2020

Boris will pursue a hard Brexit, unless Labour elects someone popular and effective who can push him into a more sensible position.

Labour are unlikely to pick someone sensible as a leader and as a consequence Boris won’t feel any pressure to compromise on hard Brexit.

It’s not even certain than Corbyn will stand down as Labour leader, and I think it is more likely that he will find an excuse to linger on than it is that they will pick a leader who will win an election.

Boris will increase Government spending, and drive down the pound, creating a brief Boris boom, before a slump later in the year as the harshness of Brexit becomes clearer.

On the back of the boom the Tories will win large numbers of Council seats in May. Labour will lose control in Durham and Sunderland. Labour lost control of all Teesside local authorities in the last round of elections, and this paved the way for the loss of 3 Parliamentary seats last month.

HMG will discover there is an insoluble problem with the Brexit preparations but will cover it up and press ahead for fear of the political consequences of not getting Brexit done. There will be a leak, but no-one will accept responsibility and the Government will blame Remoaners.

Labour will be found in breach of the 2006 Equalities Act on at least one of the charges (the one relating to complaints). Victims will launch a class action for damages. Labour will fund Corbyn’s legal fees in his libel case over the “Zionists don’t understand irony” comments. Corbyn will lose. Labour will also lose the whistleblower libel case.

Given the current awful state of Labour’s finances (they have already put all of their administrative staff on notice of redundancy) the legal costs of these court cases will make Labour bankrupt. Union bosses will be threatened with being declared “Shadow Directors” which will limit their enthusiasm to intervene.

Wealthy ex-Labour donors will offer to fund Labour 2.0 with David Milliband as party Chairman. Labour MPs will have to choose between sticking with a bankrupt party that can’t pay it’s staff, or jumping ship. They will vote whichever way has the biggest chance of keeping their jobs.

The Senate will decline to find Trump guilty following his impeachment, but it will be closer than Party lines suggest. Republican Senators in “lean Democrat” states will be risking their careers if they back him. The Republicans will maintain control of the Senate.

The Democrats will pick an uninspiring old white person as Presidential candidate, but will beat Trump anyway. Trump will be charged with real estate fraud in New York State.

The people who voted for Trump, Brexit and for Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party will spend a lot of time thinking up reasons why this wasn’t a totally shit idea.

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