With the Democrat Convention in town this week the shape of the next US election becomes clearer.
For a long time I was convinced of 2 things about the next US presidential election: Biden wouldn’t be the candidate; and whichever party dumped their candidate before the election would get a boost, possibly big enough to get them to the White House. This has come true, the change of candidate has been popular with donors who are piling the money in, and the momentum is with the Democrats.
But there is still a long way to go. Republicans are more enthusiastic about Trump than Democrats were about Biden, and it remains to be seen if Harris can turn that round. Despite numerous court cases Trump’s popularity ratings are better than in 2016 and 2020. Hapless 3rd party candidate Robert J Kennedy Jr has stood down with his weird conspiracy theory addicted supporters most likely to go to Trump. All 4 of them.
Even if Harris can close the gap Republican controlled states are engaging in overt voter suppression, in particular in swing states. This isn’t the only dirty trick that might be played. If Trump thinks if he thinks he is losing, he has a wide range of ways to cheat from armed militias to social media disinformation, and he has plenty of pals like Musk to help him do it.
And America’s enemies might be prepared to help Trump get back in. The mostly likely intervention would be mass Russian on line disinformation. However an escalating war in the Middle East which required Biden to increase military backing for Israel, and possibly commit US troops, would split the Democrat coalition wide open.
On the balance I still think Trump is the narrow favourite to win.
But if he is on course to take back the White House why is his campaign such a shit show? This week he picked a fight with Taylor Swift fans, sharing a fake endorsement from Taylor on Truth Social accompanied by racially pure, white Arian Swifties for Trump using obviously fake AI images.
This is bound to end badly for Trump who has picked a fight with a massively popular billionaire with several times his wealth. The only reason to do this is attention. Harris and Walz have all the momentum, and with the Democrat convention happening they are in the limelight. Trump is being bratty to try and become the centre of attention again. A bloated senior behaving like a spolit child.
He’s also in a legal fight with Beyonce for using her music without her permission. Trump clearly hasn’t learnt his lesson about women and consent.
Trump always had to project an image of himself as a winner. A bigly winner. Which is why he could never accept defeat in 2020. Right now he looks like a loser. A lame campaign, rambling speeches, and a disasterous appearance in front of an audience of Black Journalists, where he questioned Kamala Harris’s racial identity, and repeatedly sneered the word “black” at the audience with a curled lip.
This election is Trump’s to lose. And right now that is what he is doing.
Unless of course Trump believes that his best path back into the White House doesn’t involve winning at the ballot box……
