Immigration has fallen sharply in both Britain and the United States over the past year.
In Britain the change has been dramatic. Net migration fell from 649,000 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025 — a drop of roughly two-thirds. In the United States border encounters have collapsed from around 1.5 million to roughly 240,000 over a similar period.
Both governments would like to claim credit for this, but have taken massively different approaches. Donald Trump focusses on enforcement and deportations, spending £70bn+ turning ICE into a paramilitary force. Labour prioritises making the system work better, and re-building relationships with neighbouring countries.
But the interesting comparison isn’t the raw numbers. Britain and the United States are very different sized countries. To understand the scale of the change you have to adjust for population.
When you do that something slightly unexpected appears.
The UK policy shift is actually larger
Britain’s population is about 69 million. Immigration has fallen by roughly 402,000 people over the last year.
That reduction alone equals about 0.58 per cent of the entire UK population. If you include the small rise in emigration — about 43,000 additional departures — the total shift in the migration balance is around 445,000 people, or 0.64 per cent of the population.
In the United States the numbers are much bigger but the country is much larger too. The population is roughly 342 million.
The fall in border encounters — about 1.29 million — equals roughly 0.38 per cent of the US population. Even if you add the increase in deportations the total change comes to roughly 0.4 per cent of the population.
Put side by side it looks like this:
| Change relative to population | UK | US |
| Reduction in inflows | 0.58% | 0.38% |
| Increase in outflows | 0.06% | 0.04% |
| Total migration shift | 0.64% | ~0.42% |
In other words, once you adjust for population size the UK policy shift is actually larger.
Deportations matter less than politicians claim
Another interesting feature of the numbers is how little deportations contribute to the change.
Political debate — particularly in the United States — tends to focus heavily on removals and enforcement. But the data shows that most migration reductions come from fewer arrivals, not more deportations.
In Britain the fall has been driven mainly by:
- tighter visa salary thresholds
- restrictions on student dependants
- the end of the post-pandemic surge in international students
In the United States the decline appears to be driven largely by a collapse in attempted crossings at the southern border, rather than the number of people removed from inside the country.
The political theatre may focus on deportations. The numbers suggest they are a secondary factor.
The UK is outperforming the US on this metric by focussing on voluntary removals – persuading people who came to the UK as refugees and asylum seekers that their home countries are safe enough to return home.
The politics is stranger than the economics
None of this is reflected in political debate.
In Britain there has been surprisingly little recognition that immigration has already fallen sharply. The issue continues to dominate political discourse even as the underlying numbers move rapidly downwards.
In the United States the rhetoric is even more dramatic. Immigration is framed as an existential crisis requiring extraordinary enforcement measures.
The Trump administration publicly denounces the UK and other Western European countries as over run by immigration and at risk of self destruction.
Reform promise a British ICE
Yet if you look at the data dispassionately, both countries are already seeing large and rapid reductions in migration flows.
Indeed, once you adjust for population, Britain is experiencing the larger policy shock.
This is the reality of get tough policies. Britain had get tough policies for years up to 2024. But toughness didn’t lead to a big fall in immigration, or a fall in asylum seekers – the opposite. There is a sensible reason for this – controlling immigration and small boats means working closely with neighbouring countries. This means aligning our laws and systems with our neighbours. Tough laws and draconian rules make co-operation harder, and makes the system dysfunctional. That is why immigration and small boat crossings were massively higher under Suella Braverman.
Getting tough doesn’t work. Fixing problems, building relationships are slow and dull, but succeed.
The US is finding this out slowly. Aggressive polices, a private army, but much less effective than competent administration. And if ICE aren’t effective in increasing deportations what is the point of them? Why spend $70bn+?
The economic question
Which leaves the more interesting question.
Not whether immigration is falling — it clearly is — but whether cutting migration this quickly is economically wise.
Britain’s population is ageing rapidly. Labour shortages already exist in sectors such as care, construction and hospitality.
Reducing migration by the equivalent of 0.6 per cent of the population in a single year is a very large adjustment. The United States has the advantage of a much larger domestic labour market and faster population growth.
Britain does not.
The US has it’s own problems – it is economically dependent on taxes from big Democrat cities to subsidise Republican voting areas. If those cities are occupied by a hostile Paramilitary forces then there is a risk that those tax dollars will dry up.
The political consensus may favour lower immigration. The economic consequences of achieving it this quickly are still largely unexamined.
