I don’t normally write about football, least of all Newcastle. As a Sunderland fan, I’m not entirely neutral.
But something is happening in football that reflects something much bigger.
Cristiano Ronaldo is reportedly unhappy at his Saudi club despite being paid eye-watering sums, frustrated that no major new signings have arrived. Meanwhile Newcastle United — competing across four competitions — ended the transfer window without strengthening their squad.
What links them isn’t tactics or ambition. It’s oil.
Despite protestations about independence, Newcastle United is effectively owned by the Saudi state. That means major decisions — transfers, stadium investment, training facilities — are ultimately shaped far from Tyneside. In Riyadh. In rooms that have nothing to do with Geordie sentiment.
And the Saudi state has other priorities.
The NEOM Reality Check
NEOM was billed as the crown jewel of Vision 2030: a $500bn hyper-modern city in the desert. The Line. A 170km mirrored metropolis. Ski resorts in 50-degree heat. Floating industrial hubs. AI everywhere.
It was meant to be the future, built now.
Instead, reality has intruded. Costs have ballooned — with some internal projections reportedly running into the trillions over the project’s lifetime. Timelines have slipped. Large sections of The Line have been scaled back or re-phased, with early construction reportedly focusing on a far shorter stretch than the originally advertised 170km.
NEOM hasn’t collapsed. But the gap between promotional video and construction site is widening.
Pouring concrete in the desert is harder than rendering CGI skylines.
Oil Isn’t What It Was
The common factor between delayed mega-projects and cautious football spending is oil revenue.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel. By 2023–25 it had fallen back into the $70–85 range, well below its post-invasion peak. That is not a collapse — but it matters.
Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even oil price — the price it needs to balance its budget — is widely estimated to sit around $80–90 per barrel, depending on spending assumptions. When prices trade below that level for sustained periods, deficits emerge.
And they have.
Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit of roughly 80–100 billion riyals in 2023, widening further in 2024. Official projections suggest deficits in the region of 160+ billion riyals by 2026 if spending on Vision 2030 continues at its current pace. Public debt, once negligible, has risen above $140 billion, and the kingdom has shifted from being a consistent net exporter of capital to a significant borrower in global markets.
Oil still generates vast revenues. But the cushion is thinner.
OPEC’s ability to dictate price is weaker than it was a decade ago. US shale production acts as a ceiling on sustained spikes. Meanwhile, global oil demand growth is slowing as EV adoption rises and renewable energy capacity expands — even if total demand has not yet peaked.
Oil remains essential. But the era of easy surplus is fading.
Soft Power Has a Price
The Saudi takeover of Newcastle was part of a broader soft-power strategy: diversify the economy, improve global reputation, buy influence.
Football clubs are cheap relative to mega-projects. But they are not costless.
Meanwhile Dubai has pursued a different strategy — positioning itself as a global financial and lifestyle hub. It attracts capital, elites and media ventures. Richard Tice resides there. Nigel Farage has fundraised there. GB News has received funding linked to Gulf sources.
Dubai’s appeal is not ideological. It is structural: low tax, light regulation, discretion. Dubai is positioning itself as a place where legitimate money can mingle with flows of funds from criminal sources, and sanctioned regimes. A Reform Government in charge of the City of London and it’s banking regulation would be a massive boost to those plans, making London an offshoot of Dubai, and allowing huge sums of criminal and sanctioned money to flow more easily into the legitimate banking sector.
In a world where oligarchic wealth moves freely across borders, such hubs matter. They sit at the intersection of politics, finance and influence.
The Geopolitical Shift
For decades, oil wealth underpinned regimes across the Gulf. It funded domestic stability and projected influence abroad.
If oil revenues flatten while spending commitments rise, those regimes must adapt. That may mean economic diversification. It may mean tighter political control. It may mean more aggressive use of soft power abroad.
But the margin for error shrinks.
Iran faces internal strain. Saudi Arabia is managing persistent deficits. The UAE is pivoting toward finance and tourism. The old assumption of ever-expanding petro-wealth is fading.
And that trickles down in strange ways — even to transfer windows in English football.
The Bigger Point
This isn’t about Newcastle’s midfield, even though Tonali’s agent touts him around rivals, and Livramento courts admirers.
It’s about what happens when a world that ran on ever-rising oil demand begins to plateau.
Petro-states remain wealthy. They remain powerful. But their power is less automatic than it once was.
Football clubs, media outlets, mega-projects and financial hubs are not sideshows. They are instruments of adaptation in a changing energy economy.
When oil money tightens, the ripple effects show up everywhere — from NEOM’s skyline to St James’ Park.
And that tells us more about the future than any transfer rumour ever will.