The Strange Decline in Small Boat Crossings — One Year On

Almost exactly a year ago I wrote a slightly tentative blog about small boats crossing the Channel. Something odd appeared to be happening. In August 2025, the number of people arriving in Britain by small boat had fallen by around 40 per cent compared with the previous month. It was the lowest August figure for … Read more

Small Boats, Big Silence

The number of people crossing the Channel in small boats fell again in May. In May 2025, 3,738 people crossed the Channel in small boats. In May 2026, that figure was 2,713 — a reduction of 1,025 people. More importantly, this is not a one-off. Crossings have now fallen in eight of the last ten … Read more

Small Boat Crossings Are Falling — So Why Doesn’t it Feel Like It?

Small boat crossings are falling. They are down around 40% in April 2026 compared to the same month last year, and down roughly 38% so far this year. That makes nearly nine months of sustained decline. More strikingly, the pace of that decline is increasing — from around 30% in the latter part of 2025, … Read more