Whatever happens at the ballot box Trump will declare victory in the early hours of Wednesday morning UK time, with huge numbers of votes still to be counted. It is hard to see how violent protests can be avoided. Americans need to brace themselves for what happens next.
By any objective analysis the Trump campaign is a mess. He is holding campaign rallies in states like New York and California which he has no chance of winning, and when he does hold a rally in a swing state he stands there swaying silently to YMCA. He seems unsure if his Vice President pick is JD Vance of Elon Musk, who has started to appear at campaign rallies in Vance’s place. He is campaigning to win back his core vote, ignoring independents and swing voters, who apparently are sick of the sound of him.
He has no ground game, no-one to get out the vote (which is crucial given that his core voters are old and ill), other than some paid door knockers funded by Musk, who he has delegated part of this campaign to. It looks desperate, pathetic, like two losers trying buy friends.
Harris has raised more money, spent more on ads, particularly on social media. The money Trump has raised has been frittered away on his legal bills and campaign rallies in safe states. His performance in the debate was a mess, and he has been cancelling media appearances for anyone but the most sycophantic interviewers.
Harris has a slick operation harvesting Democrat votes from voters living outside the US, Trump doesn’t even have a plan to get out his own core vote in key states.
But Trump exudes smug confidence. He has set out his vision for his 2nd term as President, authoritarian, autocratic. and economically disastrous.
It is almost as if Trump knows something we don’t? That whatever happens to the votes cast he will be back in the Whitehouse?
What happens next will decide who is the next President.
I feel the issue is the very weird nature of the American electoral college system, which is making this even a close race.
Also, the weird nature of the the primary system that has allowed an outsider to stand as Republican leader / reshape the Republican party in his image – which is clearly the playbook the Faragists and Rees-Mogg loonie wing would like to apply to the Conservative Party.