With Trump now a convicted felon it is hard to see a path for him back to the White House.
Even before this Trump’s campaign was doing badly. The majority of the money raised goes into paying his legal fees rather than campaigning, and money talks in US politics. Trump doesn’t have enough of it to stay competitive. The repeal of Roe vs Wade has given lots of Americans who are underwhelmed by Joe Biden a big incentive to vote.
But this isn’t the only way Trump can win.
Tuesday 5th November Americans go to the polls. In key swing states voters in Democrat districts arrive at the polls to be greeted by heavily armed right wing militias. Under they guise of checking ID, or stopping illegal immigrants voting, they blockade polling stations, turning away voters, particularly if they are non-white. In some districts police try and intervene, but mostly these militias have law enforcement with them to protect their right to carry arms.
By noon the election is in chaos, with millions prevented from voting. Those who do manage to vote find that their ballots are rejected by pro-Trump election officials. By the time polls close violence is widespread with clashes between the militias, voters and law enforcement.
Republican State Governors intervene in the chaos, declaring that Trump is the winner in their state. With the majority of states run by Republicans Trump wins the electoral college. Congress declares him the winner. Fox News lead the right wing media in legitimising the Coup.
Democrats appeal to the Supreme Court who decline to hear the case until after Trumps inauguration.
On the 20th January 2025 Trump is sworn in as President to widespread and violent protest. He deploys the military to suppress opposition, and to round up political opponents. Once elected, and with the Supreme Court on his side he stops any investigations into the events of 5th November, sacking and jailing judges and District Attorneys.
This might seem far fetched, but this is a commonly shared plan on pro-Trump/MAGA/QAnon message boards, and has crossed over to Republicans elected to public office. In reality the majority of swing states have Democrat Governors, and the Republican majority in Congress is too small for such a coup. By November they might not even have a majority at all
But that won’t stop some MAGA/QAnon using the 5th November for gunpowder, treason and plot.
Scary stuff Jon and sadly not beyond the realms of possibility. If only Biden had decided to step down and someone with less baggage take over the mantle it might not feel quite so tight and fraught with jeopardy.