UK Politics 2025
British politics in 2025 has been described as chaotic, unstable and on the brink. That description is everywhere — in headlines, in think-tank briefings, and in the permanent background noise of grievance that now passes for commentary.
It is also mostly wrong.
What 2025 actually shows is something more unsettling: a government quietly reshaping markets, institutions and the state itself, while a large part of the political class pretends nothing is happening — or screams “chaos” because shouting feels more comfortable than thinking.
Labour
The current Labour government represents a much bigger split from recent economic orthodoxy than many people recognise.
Previous versions of the Labour Party were reluctant to interfere too directly in the operation of markets. Indeed, they often embraced marketisation — the introduction of market-style incentives into public services — as a kind of managerial cure-all.
The current Labour Party isn’t going back to the old era of nationalisation for its own sake, although we are arguably in the middle of a third great wave of nationalisation-by-crisis after Attlee and Gordon Brown.
But the bigger point is this: the government is willing to intervene in markets more aggressively than any previous government in living memory. Even Attlee, when given a choice, often preferred the private sector to the public sector — so long as it delivered.
We’ve now had over 18 months of the new Labour government. It’s time to stop arguing about intent and start assessing outcomes.
The economy
Inflation is falling, though still higher than May last year (3.2% vs 2%). The economy has grown by 2.1% since Labour came into power — stronger than under the previous Conservative government, but still not as strong as it needs to be.
The Bank of England base rate has fallen from 5.4% to 4% over the same period, reflecting that continuing weakness.
The 10-year gilt rate is up marginally (4.2% to 4.4%), but has fallen since the budget. The Liz Truss premium that the UK pays on government debt is declining, and rates have been falling relative to comparable economies. After the autumn budget, the UK premium against the eurozone almost halved.
This matters because post-Truss debt interest is now about 8% of all government spending.
Unemployment is up slightly too, from 4.5% to 5.4%, but the headline hides the real problem: unemployment for under-25s is nearly 14%. Unemployment for over-25s is very low.
Wage growth has risen sharply — around 4.7% per year, and over 7% on average since the election — which means real wage growth (adjusted for inflation) is positive for the first time in years.
The National Minimum Wage (NMW) and National Living Wage (NLW) saw significant increases. The NLW (21+) rose by 6.7% to £12.21, while younger groups and apprentices received bigger jumps: 18–20 year olds up 16.3% to £10.00, and 16–17 year olds and apprentices up 18% to £7.55.
Meanwhile National Insurance has increased from 13.8% to 15%, with the threshold dropping from £9,100 to £5,000.
This is consistent with the government’s plan to reduce the UK’s reliance on low-paid labour and move towards a higher-wage economy. But it is also worrying that young people appear to be paying the price for it. Urgent action is needed.
UK capital investment is growing by 2.7% — still too slow. It looked as though speculation ahead of the last budget increased uncertainty for businesses and households. Stronger consumer and business confidence post-budget, plus lower interest rates, should make the economy stronger in 2026. The full-year effects of trade deals with the US, the EU and elsewhere should help too.
All of this is happening against a destructive set of risks elsewhere, mostly in the US economy to which we are tied. Trump’s tariffs are slowing the US — and the world. US growth is now heavily dependent on vast investment in AI. Even a modest slowdown in AI spending could hit the US hard, possibly hard enough to push it into recession. A crash in the AI sector would hammer the US and its trading partners.
Foreign policy
A reset with the EU is welcome. A better trade deal mitigating the worst effects of Boris’s Brexit bodge is good news. Starmer and Lammy have dealt effectively with a chaotic and at times hostile White House, while positioning the UK as a key part of European defence and security.
The return of the UK to Erasmus, and a likely deal on freedom of movement for young people, shows that the government is quietly repairing the damage of Brexit.
The recognition of the State of Palestine was an important and principled move — long overdue.
The UK and France are the two European nations with permanent seats on the UN Security Council. Historically they have tried to keep a flexible position on Israel and Palestine, in the face of partisan US support for Israel and the pro-Iranian posture of Russia.
Joint recognition by France and the UK is more than virtue signalling. It changes the diplomatic dynamics at the UN and in Europe.
I have always avoided comparisons between Israel and the Nazis, or Netanyahu and Hitler. Such comparisons are crass and historically inaccurate.
But it is clear that war crimes have been committed by Israeli forces, and that Netanyahu has prolonged the conflict in ways that protect his political position. It is also clear he is giving support to settlers on the West Bank, and plans to create illegal settlements in Gaza.
The actions in Gaza are ethnic cleansing. I wouldn’t compare Netanyahu to Hitler, but I would compare him to Slobodan Milosevic. The occupants of the Gaza Strip are being ethnically cleansed just as Bosnian Muslims were.
Milosevic ultimately ended up in The Hague. Netanyahu should stand trial in the same way.
Parliament has launched an inquiry into foreign money and influence in British politics. At the same time, Britain’s security services have started talking publicly about the threat posed to British democracy.
At the time of Brexit there was widespread suspicion of Russian interference, but no change in the role of the security services. That has changed.
Russia could — and likely will — test NATO soon. It is already testing our defences through cyber warfare and political interference. Russian jets probe NATO airspace. Russian submarines enter other countries’ territorial waters.
Russia relied on a friendly regime in Syria to provide it with an all-year-round harbour in the Mediterranean. Without this, it is reliant on St Petersburg (which ices up) and Vladivostok (east of Pyongyang). Its economy worsens each year and Putin gets older. Russia is becoming increasingly desperate to keep its place at the top table in Trump’s new world order.
Immigration
Since the change in government, net immigration has fallen by 70%. Small boat crossings are down 30% since August. The number of asylum seekers in hotels is slightly up, but spend is down 30%. The time taken to process applications has fallen.
This is good news — particularly for people who claim to want lower immigration and a fairer system. But the reaction has resembled the stages of grief: denial, bargaining, insisting it is anyone but the government who is responsible.
Maybe eventually they will reach the final stage — acceptance. But it is just as likely that once these demands are met, they simply demand something else, something more extreme. Increasingly, what they want is ethnic cleansing.
Small boat crossings are down 30% over the last four months. There has not been a single small boat arrival for 28 days — the longest spell with no asylum seekers arriving by small boats in seven years.
The costs of asylum hotels are down 30%.
Immigration has fallen by nearly 70% since Labour came to power. Personally, I think it is now too low and unsustainable. The UK needs immigration to keep labour markets fluid, and once net migration drops below 250,000 it starts to have a negative impact on the economy.
Every census for the last 30 years shows we are becoming more integrated as a country — ethnic minorities are less concentrated in single communities and more spread out around the country. Ironically, that appears to be one reason why some people are so angry.
Watching right-wing dafties come to terms with falling immigration and falling small boat crossings is like the stages of grief: denial, bargaining, rage. Having something to be angry about has become such a big part of their existence that they are genuinely unsettled when it is taken away.
The endless succession of images, the constant drumbeat of fear and invasion — designed to make the timid and gullible soil themselves — has been used to reshape our politics: Liz Truss economics dressed up in nativist clothing, Enoch Powell cosplay with better lighting.
Grooming gangs
Anti-immigrant sentiment has been stirred up by the historic issue of grooming gangs. As I covered earlier this year, Reform and the Conservatives wanted another public inquiry — one that would take years — having already rejected the findings of the last one. They want the issue kicked into the long grass.
The reasons are straightforward. Grooming gangs and organised exploitation of different kinds operated in many parts of the country. There have already been investigations into gangs in areas run by Labour councils, but Conservative local authorities were spared the same scrutiny under successive Conservative ministers. Many of the Conservative councillors who turned a blind eye are now Reform.
The government’s priority is giving the police additional resources to reopen historical abuse cases, and this is paying dividends. These are only the most recent arrests:
1) Bradford: Ten Men Arrested Over 1990s Child Abuse Allegations (UK)
In August 2025, West Yorkshire Police arrested 10 men aged 49–71 in connection with alleged historical child sexual abuse in Bradford dating from 1994 to 1997.
The suspects were interviewed and released on bail pending further enquiries. The investigation is part of efforts to tackle non-recent sexual offences against children.
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2) West Yorkshire: Nineteen Arrests in Kirklees Investigation (UK)
In November 2025, West Yorkshire Police announced that 19 men had been arrested during October in connection with a large-scale investigation into non-recent child sexual abuse affecting women who were children between 2000 and 2009. These arrests relate to alleged offences including rape, sexual assault, and human trafficking.
All those arrested were interviewed and released pending further inquiries as part of a long and complex investigation.
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3) Bradford: Additional Arrests in Historical Abuse Inquiry (UK)
Also in November 2025, detectives investigating separate historical child sexual abuse reports in Bradford arrested three people — two men (83 and 86) and one woman (83) — in Cumbria and Kent. They were bailed pending further enquiries.
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4) Greater Manchester/Oldham “Operation Sherwood” (UK)
As part of Operation Sherwood — a multi-year investigation into grooming and non-recent child sexual exploitation in Oldham and Greater Manchester — specialist detectives have carried out numerous arrests.
In mid-2025, police reported arrests of multiple men aged 33, 51, 52 on suspicion of child rape offences alleged from 2011 to 2014. These arrests stem from survivor disclosures and form part of an ongoing major investigation.
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5) South Yorkshire Police Officers Arrested Over Child Abuse Complaints (UK)
In early 2025, two former South Yorkshire Police officers were arrested amid investigations into historic child sexual abuse complaints from survivors linked to incidents in Rotherham in the 1990s–2000s.
A retired constable in his 60s and a former officer in his 50s were questioned under caution on suspicion of sexual offences and other charges.
“Government of chaos”
Despite all of this there has been a deliberate attempt to create a narrative about a government in chaos.
This is dangerous for Labour, a party elected with a mandate to end the political chaos of Johnson and Truss.
A Reform government would be even more chaotic — but voters might decide that if it’s going to be chaos whoever gets in, they might as well give Reform a go.
Worse than that, it creates the impression among some voters that democracy just isn’t working and that a dictator for a few years would be a good thing — particularly one who would “sink and kill” asylum seekers crossing the Channel.
But what I see is the opposite. Not a single tax rise announced in the budget has unravelled. When Rachel Reeves appeared before the Treasury Select Committee recently, there was no equivalent of the “pasty tax” harangue that George Osborne faced in 2012.
Instead, they have quietly got on with the biggest legislative programme I can remember.
The legislative programme
No apologies for the boring list. Governments reshape countries through statute, not vibes.
1. Employment Rights Act 2025
This is one of the most significant pieces of legislation so far. It overhauls employment law, including:
• banning exploitative fire-and-rehire practices
• scrapping the cap on unfair dismissal compensation
• enhancing workers’ rights on hours, redundancy process, and union recognition
• introducing statutory sick pay improvements
The Act has broad implications for employers and workers, and its measures will be rolled out over 2026–27.
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2. Data (Use and Access) Act 2025
This Act reforms the UK’s data protection framework by:
• updating elements of the UK GDPR and Privacy and Electronic Communications Regulations
• creating new frameworks for data sharing between public and private sectors
• establishing rules for digital identity verification and electronic trust services
The aim is to balance privacy with better data use across government and business.
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3. Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act 2025
A major Home Office bill enshrined into law on 2 December 2025, this Act:
• strengthens border control mechanisms
• reforms asylum and immigration rules
• expands data sharing for customs and serious crime purposes
• adjusts fees and qualifications recognition systems
It repealed the earlier Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Act 2024.
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4. Great British Energy Act 2025
This creates Great British Energy, a new publicly owned energy company focused on accelerating clean energy production — particularly nuclear and renewable sources — to help meet the UK’s net-zero targets.
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5. Renters’ Rights Act 2025
A key housing law aimed at reforming the private rented sector, including:
• abolishing fixed-term assured and assured shorthold tenancies
• imposing new obligations on landlords
• strengthening enforcement powers for local housing authorities
This is part of Labour’s broader housing and renters’ reform agenda.
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6. Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025
Often known as Martyn’s Law, this Act requires premises hosting events of more than 200 people to devise and test terrorism safety plans and staff training following major terrorist incidents such as the Manchester Arena bombing.
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Other Notable Acts
And that’s just the headline stuff. These have also become law during this parliamentary session, though many are more specialised or technical:
• Deprivation of Citizenship Orders (Effect during Appeal) Act 2025 – adjusts how citizenship revocation decisions are treated during appeals.
• Armed Forces Commissioner Act 2024-26 – establishes an Armed Forces Commissioner to handle welfare and complaints issues.
• Bank Resolution (Recapitalisation) Act 2025 – deals with bank recapitalisation under existing resolution frameworks.
• Crown Estate Act 2025 – updates the governance and financial arrangements of the Crown Estate.
• Commonwealth Parliamentary Association and ICRC (Status) Act 2025 – updates diplomatic status arrangements for certain international bodies.
• Public Authorities (Fraud, Error and Recovery) Act 2025 – targets fraud and error in public spending and recovery of funds.
• Property (Digital Assets etc) Act 2025 – clarifies property rights relating to digital and intangible assets.
• Sentencing Guidelines (Pre-sentence Reports) Act 2025 – reforms sentencing report processes.
• Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education (Transfer) Act 2025 – reorganises apprenticeship policy administration.
• National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1) Act 2024-26 and various Supply and Appropriation Acts – largely technical fiscal and budgeting laws.
Reforms to the Mental Health Act 1983 via the Mental Health Bill 2024–26, and the Planning and Infrastructure Bill 2024–26, covering planning reform and environmental levies, will become law in the next few weeks.
It seems to me that those people who like the country the way it is are the ones most keen to destabilise the government.
The NHS
Labour has embarked on the biggest and riskiest transformation of the NHS in decades: dismantling the Thatcherite internal market, bringing primary care under tighter NHS control (something Nye Bevan backed away from), and removing around 18,000 management posts.
The Secretary of State, Wes Streeting, has put his reputation on the line — as has the tight-knit group of senior managers around him.
Labour has put in more money and staff. Productivity and activity have risen a bit. Waiting times are down a bit. Yet waiting lists stay stubbornly high.
With flu cases rising, winter pressures building, and junior doctors about to strike, there is a renewed attempt to get rid of the NHS and replace it with an American-style system.
I have long mocked people who claimed the Tories wanted to privatise the NHS. For years it was mostly fringe paranoia. But within Reform — and the former Conservatives in their orbit — it is now mainstream.
Reform, the Conservatives and Tommy Robinson
Reform is getting closer to formally merging with the Conservatives — or at least the mad wing of the Tories. The old Tory tradition will survive as a rump, the political equivalent of the Kinks’ Village Green Preservation Society. It will either become a fringe group or merge with the Lib Dems.
Reform has taken over much of the Conservative ecosystem: client journalists, friendly newspapers, foreign media barons. If the Tories ever rise again, the media establishment may drift back. For now, it belongs to Reform — bolstered by a vast network of online disinformation, much of it foreign-sourced, some state-linked, some purely commercial, taking advantage of the propensity of older Reform voters to click, like and share any old crap.
Reform also represents a strand of right-wing politics we haven’t seen for decades of Tory neoliberalism: the killjoy. The nosy neighbour. The bossy bureaucrat. The curtain-twitcher. People who want to tell everyone what to do and what to think — all in the name of free speech.
Partly this reflects their supporters: small-town snobs, petty authoritarians, the terminally aggrieved. But it also reflects frustration. They have been indulged for years. Every daft idea, every stupid whim, every conspiracy and self-pity has been entertained. They now expect politics to exist primarily to validate their resentments.
Reform’s rise has depended heavily on public concern about rising immigration numbers. It has become the critical issue for the entire right-wing politico-media complex. Papers like the Daily Mail daren’t declare victory, despite rapidly falling numbers, for fear of losing their core grievance. Sustaining this level of rage will become harder — which doesn’t mean they won’t try.
Tommy Robinson and attempts to create a Christian right don’t bring huge numbers, but they create a sense of righteousness: crusaders, saviours, moral panic dressed as virtue.
Their coalition isn’t stable.
Farage said a Reform government would be the most pro-business government in history. He has flirted with lowering minimum wages for young people and talked up deregulation. They’ve already backed away from raising the basic tax allowance to £20k and started questioning the sustainability of the triple lock (the last of these has some merit). Together with voting against increased worker protections, this runs directly against the interests of many of their supporters — though anyone who can string a sentence together already knew that.
At the start of this year Reform’s trajectory looked clear: to the left, to the left. Farage led calls for nationalising British Steel and Thames Water, vowed “a good partnership with the unions”, and even praised Arthur Scargill.
Some people started describing Reform as left-wing. Others said it had abandoned Thatcherism.
Then Farage went to the City and lamented that the right had failed to exploit Brexit: “We have not taken advantage of the opportunities to deregulate.” It was Britannia Unchained rhetoric in a cheaper suit.
At Bloomberg it was Richard Tice’s turn, framed as a chancellor-in-waiting. He invoked the deregulatory “Big Bang”, extolled fiscal conservatism as “basic housekeeping”, and praised “a flatter tax system”. Thatcher may not have been named, but she haunted the room.
This is a version of Thatcherism with a much stronger authoritarian streak than Thatcher herself ever intended.
Historically the mainstream British right did not make overt appeals to prejudice, encourage political violence, form alliances with the far right, or advocate authoritarianism at home and abroad. That has changed.
For example, Farage’s plans to leave the ECHR would turn rights into privileges. Leaving the European Court of Human Rights means a world where rights and citizenship are not held equally, but are granted conditionally — based on heritage and obedience — while the state polices behaviour and compliance.
Trump’s deportation programme has inspired the British far right. They can now say out loud what they always wanted: mass deportations. Deporting legally settled people is now being described as “broadly in line” with mainstream Tory thinking.
What they want is ethnic cleansing.
The Greens
I was a bit harsh on Zack Polanski when he was campaigning to be Green leader, and he has done pretty well so far.
His problems remain the same. A big chunk of his voter base isn’t as left-wing as he thinks. Two of his MPs are in former Conservative seats. A large chunk of Green voters are right-wing NIMBYs.
He has also welcomed into the Greens a whole cohort of people who moved from Labour to “Your Party” and then to the Greens, bringing chaos and sectarian schisms everywhere they go.
There are major problems with his policy framework:
He is committed to a wealth tax of 1% on £10m+ and 2% on £1bn+ without any detail of how the tax would be assessed or collected. Taxing unrealised capital gains also creates opportunities for the very rich to offset unrealised losses, which could end up costing the Treasury more than it raises.
He is also fond of Modern Monetary Theory — the idea that governments can spend what they like and that taxes are only needed to control inflation. This is nonsense. If he tries to borrow the huge sums required from financial markets, he will discover the limits of fantasy very quickly.
On foreign policy the Greens are still anti-NATO, and too susceptible to pro-Russian ideologies.
Whether he can sort this out in time for the next general election — without drowning in petty internal debates — will determine the future of the Green Party and the non-Labour left.
Some left-wing voters will vote tactically for another left-wing party to keep out the right, but this might be less effective if the recipient party is in government. The Greens have been the most reluctant to vote tactically to keep Reform out, which could well shape the the next General Election.
What defines British politics in 2025 is not disorder, but refusal. Refusal to accept falling immigration. Refusal to accept that public services require reform rather than demolition. Refusal to accept that markets sometimes need discipline. Refusal, above all, to accept that a plural, integrated society is now a settled fact.
Labour, for all its risks and missteps, is governing — legislating, intervening, and reshaping the country through law rather than spectacle. The right, increasingly, is not. It is nursing grievance, flirting with authoritarianism, and edging ever closer to the language of expulsion and ethnic cleansing.
That is the real dividing line now. Not left versus right, or state versus market — but whether politics is about running a country as it exists, or trying to purge the country until it fits a fantasy.
PS. I know I missed out the LibDems. I will cover them in a later blog!