Something bad is happening in the world’s bond markets. Governments are finding it increasingly expensive to borrow money, at precisely the time when they are borrowing enormous amounts of it. In Britain, yields on long-dated government bonds have climbed to levels not seen for decades, while in the United States the federal government faces a … Read more
Every few months, a familiar story appears in the newspapers and across social media. Public-sector workers are enjoying bigger pay rises than their private-sector counterparts. The implication is usually that those employed by the taxpayer are doing rather better than the people whose taxes pay their salaries. There is some evidence to support the claim. … Read more
How the ONS rewrote Britain’s productivity statistics, and why the government’s economic strategy has a rather awkward problem. Nine years ago I accidentally lied to the Office for National Statistics. I was taking part in the Labour Force Survey. My working hours varied enormously, the questionnaire wasn’t very good at coping with this, and eventually … Read more
Another week, another set of shop closures.Retailers and restaurant owners complain about rising costs, newspapers publish photographs of boarded-up shops, and inevitably somebody blames the Government. There is some justification for this. In April 2025 the National Living Wage increased by 6.7%, from £11.44 to £12.21 an hour. At the same time employers’ National Insurance … Read more
It’s the 40th anniversary of the end of the miners strike and I went back to Redhills to watch a documentary about the. strike. People who grew up in former mining owns bemoaned the decline of manufacturing and similar industries, and the disappearance of the tight knit communities that grew up around them Thatcher’s period … Read more
For much of the last forty years, Britain’s economic direction appeared settled. Governments argued about tax rates, spending priorities and public services, but the broad framework changed little. Privatisation, deregulation, competition, independent regulation, free trade and globalisation became part of the political consensus. Even Labour governments largely accepted the settlement created during the Thatcher years. … Read more
There has been a lot of comment about the latest UK growth figures. The headlines are undeniably good. Britain is now the fastest-growing economy in the G7 on recent quarterly measures, and since the General Election only the US has grown faster. That is particularly notable because the US is running a budget deficit of … Read more
I have finally given up on BT. Not just personally, but professionally as well. My business is moving away from them, and after the last few weeks I genuinely cannot understand why anybody voluntarily stays with them unless inertia, exhaustion or fear of changing provider finally overwhelms the instinct for self-preservation. The final straw was … Read more
Over the last few weeks I’ve travelled up and down the East Coast. It’s the tenth anniversary of Brexit, and with local elections looming, Reform are loudly predicting a string of victories. In some places they sound less like a political party and more like a touring production—same script, slightly different audience each night. Hull … Read more
The IMF recently downgraded its growth forecast for the UK following the escalation of conflict between the US/Israel and Iran. All major economies saw downgrades, but the UK’s was the largest. Even so, the IMF still expects the UK to be among the better-performing advanced economies. That didn’t make the headlines. Instead, we got the … Read more