Clearly this was a big night for Reform, a bad night for Labour, and a mixed night for everyone else. Labour lost seats to the Greens, to a lesser extent Reform, and to Plaid Cymru and the SNP. The Conservatives lost seats heavily to Reform. But for the Government to lose seats at this point … Read more
The latest immigration data slipped out last week with surprisingly little noise. It should have been a big political moment. Net migration has fallen to 204,000 in the year to June—less than a third of the previous year’s level. That’s not a marginal shift. That’s a collapse. It’s now so sharp that it risks tipping … Read more
By-elections are supposed to be strange. Low turnout, odd swings, protest votes. But every so often they tell you something real about the direction of travel. This one did. Start with the Greens. On the face of it, good news. They can clearly mobilise a vote and, in the right conditions, win. But their real … Read more