The IMF recently downgraded its growth forecast for the UK following the escalation of conflict between the US/Israel and Iran. All major economies saw downgrades, but the UK’s was the largest. Even so, the IMF still expects the UK to be among the better-performing advanced economies. That didn’t make the headlines. Instead, we got the … Read more
No. One of the more eye-catching claims doing the rounds this week comes from a Fortune article arguing that the U.S. government is “insolvent”. The evidence? The Treasury’s own financial statements for 2025 show roughly $6 trillion in assets against nearly $48 trillion in liabilities. Add in long-term “unfunded” obligations for Social Security and Medicare … Read more
At long last, the student loan system is being debated seriously. It should be. Few policies impose marginal tax rates that politicians would tolerate anywhere else: 37% on incomes over £25,000, 51% over £50,270, and 71% over £100,000, before you even factor in interest and postgraduate add-ons. The Conservatives have proposed scrapping interest rates of … Read more
What happened in the budget? Last week Rachel Reeves delivered the Government’s latest budget. It arrived amid a fog of leaks — some accidental, others clearly not — and a week of breathless speculation about market panic. In reality, there was a modest increase in the interest rate the Government pays on its borrowing. But … Read more
Once again, we’re talking about government debt and interest rates. At Labour’s last conference, Andy Burnham was criticised for suggesting the UK government shouldn’t pay so much attention to international financial markets and the price they charge for UK government debt. The criticism was justified: as long as the government has to borrow, it must … Read more