The Next Crisis Isn’t Inflation. It’s Debt—and the US Is the Problem

The IMF recently downgraded its growth forecast for the UK following the escalation of conflict between the US/Israel and Iran. All major economies saw downgrades, but the UK’s was the largest. Even so, the IMF still expects the UK to be among the better-performing advanced economies. That didn’t make the headlines. Instead, we got the … Read more

UK Government Debt and the Budget: What Really Just Happened?

Rachel Reeves debt interest

What happened in the budget? Last week Rachel Reeves delivered the Government’s latest budget. It arrived amid a fog of leaks — some accidental, others clearly not — and a week of breathless speculation about market panic. In reality, there was a modest increase in the interest rate the Government pays on its borrowing. But … Read more

Public Spending, Accounting Rules, and the Quiet Revolution in Government

This is the most boring blog you’re ever going to read. Truly dull. It contains some very big numbers and zero sex appeal. And yet, it marks a fundamental shift in how government works in the UK—a quiet but far-reaching change that’s been unfolding over the past year and underpins the most recent Government Spending … Read more